On Draft:
AFC South
By Matt Meier and John Scott Gibney
April 19, 2012
Happy Draft season football fans! To celebrate the annual April relevancy of the best sport in the land, Talk Sports / Drink Beer will be examining the needs and projected picks of EVERY SINGLE TEAM, one division per day, until Draft Day on April 26. Matt will play GM, detailing the needs of each club, and John Scott will play Scout, suggesting which prospects would be best, and where to draft them.
April 18: NFC East
April 19: AFC South
April 20 (hee-hee): AFC North
April 21: NFC West
April 22: AFC West
April 23: NFC North
AFC South
Divisional Drink: Jack n' Coke
Houston Texans (10-6; 1-1 post-season)
Team Microbrew: Shiner Bock
Draft Picks: 1(26), 2(26), 3(76), 4(4), 4(26), 5(26), 6(25), 7(26)
Top Needs: WR, DE/OLB (pass rusher), CB
Other Considerations: DT/NT, O-Line, ILB, WR/KR, TE, FB, Kicker
Houston lost a LOT of players this off-season. In fact, for a team that won their first playoff game EVER before losing by only a TD to an ostensibly far superior Ravens squad—oh, and all with a BACK UP ROOKIE QB—you’d think Houston would want to retain as many players as possible, not rebuild. Alas, poor cap management cost them stud DE/OLB Mario Williams, whom they infamaously (and now brilliantly) selected 1st overall in 2005 over Reggie Bush; but we pretty much expected that one to happen given Mario’s asking price. What made the loss of Mario so devastating was to lose him and linebacker Demeco Ryans (via trade to the Eagles…woohoo!), two key veterans for that defense and front seven. Also lost to free agency were starters Mike Brisiel (LG) and Eric Winston (LT) on the o-line, plus the frequently used back-up TE Joel Dressen—even veteran kicker Neil Rackers hasn’t officially resigned yet (nor have several other notable backups). Houston did, however, manage to replace punter Matt Turk—Houstonian chants for “Donnie Jones” were heard round the nation on the day the punter was signed, Houston’s lone free agent acquisition.
So in short, Houston needs to replace all these people and add to their two weakest positions from last year: WR and CB. Mario Williams was a supreme outside pass rusher, though they needn’t necessarily draft a similar prospect if a stellar defensive nose tackle that can bring the heat falls to them in the first. And though free agent acquisition Jonathan Joseph proved an amazing sign for the Texans in his first year with them, they could still use someone else working the other half of the field. Most pressing of all, however, is Houston’s dire need to add depth and talent at WR. Despite a mediocre 2011 season plagued by injury, Andre Johnson is largely regarded as a likely future Hall of Famer—as he should be. But he is also the ONLY unanimously regarded top-tier/future-HoF receiver in the league who has never scored ten or more receiving touchdowns in a season, and that is largely because he’s never had a legitimate receiver playing opposite him. Even though they have other pressing needs, the Texans absolutely MUST draft AT LEAST one receiver in the top three rounds, or perhaps even trade up for a top guy in the first (a la Atlanta’s move to get Julio Jones last year).
John Scott Recommends:
Rueben Randle WR – LSU
I got to think LSU is going to go wide receiver here. As Matt pointed out, they’ve needed someone opposite Andre Johnson for a while. And Rueben Randle, at 6-4, is a big dude who could fill the role perfectly. He continually snuck around defenses last season and added some offensive excitement to a defensive-skewed LSU team.
John Scott's Sleeper pick:
Stephen Hill WR – Georgia Tech
Hill didn’t get as much publicity on GT as Randle on the national title contending LSU tigers, but make no mistake, he is big, scary and could go higher than some expect
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Team Microbrew: Yazoo Hop Project
Draft Picks: 1(20), 2(20), 3(19), 4(20), 5(20), 6(20), 7(20)
Top Needs: D-line, Center, Cornerback
Other Considerations: OLB, Guard, WR, RB
In the glourious words of Lt. Aldo Raine: “We hear a story too good to be true…it ain’t.” Even a screenwriter like myself could not craft a better sports narrative than Peyton Manning returning to the Volunteer State to close out arguably the greatest QB career of all time. Alas, he chose the town formerly owned by Tim Tebow as his final destination—perhaps the orange jerseys convinced him—and Tennessee can only ponder to ask what could have been. In all fairness, however, the Titans have no issues at the QB position and didn’t need Manning nearly as much as they wanted him. Before Cam Newton’s Super-season, I claimed that Jake Locker would have the best career of the 2011 QB class; Matt Hassleback played very well in his first stint with Tennessee, but Locker was extremely exciting with the opportunities he was given and will likely compete to start next year.
But enough about QBs—it’s the defense that really needs a tune up, namely the defensive line. After losing DT/DE Jason Jones to free agency, the Titans signed DE/OLB Kamerion Wimbley to a five-year deal. A top DE prospect behind only Mario Williams and John Abraham coming out of college, Wimbley will return to his natural position after being stuck at OLB for the past six seasons (four with Cleveland, two with Oakland). Wimbley was a necessary signing for Tennessee, but the rest of the line still needs some work. Though not yet an official bust, the Titans cannot assume that 2010 first rounder Derrick Morgan’s poor performance last year was simply residual rust from the torn ACL he suffered his rookie season. Furthermore, Karl Krug showed promise while playing sparingly through his rookie year, but with Jason Jones gone, they lack a true starter at the DT position. Consider the entire D-line a priority throughout the draft, especially in the early rounds.
Tennessee also needs an OLB prospect to eventually replace an aging and limited Will Witherspoon, but with the other LBs set, CB would seem a slightly higher priority on the defensive side after losing Cortland Finnegan to the Rams. Rumors have linked Tennessee as a suitor of Pro Bowl CB Asante Samuel, with whom the Eagles are purportedly willing to part for a ridiculously low asking price (in the ball park of a fourth round pick). Even if the trade happens before the draft (though I have a feeling it won’t), it wouldn’t hurt to seek some added depth in the later rounds; but I’m sure head coach Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame offensive guard, is far more concerned with shoring up the interior of his offensive line. Signing Hassleback’s former Seattle teammate Steve Hutchinson was a superb start, but center remains arguably the team’s greatest need of all. There was a reason CJ2k couldn’t do shit running up the middle last year, and it wasn’t because he spent his holdout smoking blunts in a gold jacuzzi of Dom Perignon.
John Scott Recommends:
Nick Perry DE – USC
This is difficult. The added importance of pass-rushers in the NFL have made DE and OLB recruits top priorities for teams and the first round is stocked with players who could end up going all over the place. A better player could fall but I think Perry is a safe bet for the Titans. But if DT like Dontari Poe or Michael Brockers fell, it will be a different story
John Scott's Sleeper pick:
Stephen Gilmore CB – South Carolina
Many feel he is the second best corner in the draft, over Janoris and Dre Kirkpatrick. If he falls, Titans could put the D-Line needs on hold.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
Team Microbrew: Fritz Hefeweizen (Bold City Brewery)
Draft Picks: 1(7), 2(6), 3(7), 4(6), 5(7), 6(6), 7(21)
Top Needs: A time machine to go back one year and NOT trade up for Gabbert
Other Considerations: Seriously…the time machine. And a wide receiver.
Looking at his college stats, it’s rather perplexing how Blaine Gabbert became such a sought after QB in last year’s draft—really puts into perspective how easily a QB can be over-hyped and over-drafted (cough, cough, Ryan Tannehill, cough). Jacksonville brought in Chad Henne to compete with Goldilocks for the starting role, but that’s like upgrading from a Honda Civic to a Toyota Camry; like anyone facing crippling inadequacy, the Jaguars desperately need to overcompensate and buy a Hummer. The signing of former Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson could add modest libido to Jacksonville’s impotent passing game, but drafting a top receiver prospect with their seventh overall pick could be the double dose of Viagra this team needs. GM Gene Smith will likely face unemployment next year if his team enters the 2012 season with Maurice Jones-Drew as their only playmaker. If that guy isn’t available at seven, Jacksonville would probably be wise to trade down, especially considering the depth of this year’s receiving class. Their offensive line could improve a bit as well, but improved pass protection is not going to turn the league’s worst passing team into the Green Bay Packers, and the Jags shouldn’t spend more than a second rounder on the position. The wiser decision would be address their line on the other side of the ball. Although the Jags’ defense allowed the sixth fewest yards per game among all NFL teams last year (a surprising stat likely attributed to the mediocrity of their opponents more than their individual potency), they ranked 25th in sacks. They smartly added CB Aaron Ross to improve an already decent secondary and would get even more bang for their buck by drafting a stud defensive lineman who can really bring the heat and force turnovers. The 49ers showed us last year what a great defense can do for a lackluster offense. The Jaguars face a relatively daunting schedule next year, including three opponents ranked in the top 5 offensively last year (New England (2), Green Bay (3), and Detroit (5)); no matter which wide receiver Jacksonville ends up drafting—though they undoubtedly will draft at least one in the first three rounds—the Jaguars will need an effective defense to keep competitive. Then again, if they’re particularly fond of Matt Barkley, they could always pull a Jim Irsay and throw the season for next year’s top pick.
John Scott Recommends:
Fletcher Cox DT – Mississippi State
Cox can play both DE and DT which in today’s league is invaluable. They could go Melvin Ingram or Quinton Couples, but I think Cox’s versatility and size will win the Jags over.
John Scott's Sleeper pick:
Ryan Tannehill QB – Texas A&M
Okay, okay, not going to happen, but how awesome would it be if they swiped him right before the Dolphins? Battle of the average QBs in north Florida? I want to watch that.
Indianapolis Colts (2-14; Sucked for Luck)
Team Microbrew: Pride & Joy (3 Floyds)
Draft Picks: 1(1), 2(2), 3(1), 4(2), 5(1), 5(35), 6(36), 7(1), 7(7), 7(46/Mr. Irrelevant)
Top Needs: Andrew Luck
Other Considerations: Everything else
I know it seems like I’m just being lazy now with my team needs/considerations, but honestly, where do I even begin with Indianapolis? To say the Colts are in a “rebuilding stage” would be the understatement of the year. The Redskins may have traded the farm for their QB of the future, but after the Colts effectively “sucked for Luck,” they pretty much said, “fuck it” and nuked the farm and everything around it to high hell. If Jim Irsay were smart—or, in other words, if pigs could fly and Jerry Sandusky had a soul—he would end his bogus “we don’t know whom we’re drafting yet” campaign and start the contract talks with Luck now to avoid any delays in getting him signed. I’m sure Indy is also desperately hoping that Luck’s former teammate Coby Fleener falls to them in the second, thus addressing their pressing need at TE and providing Luck with a solid dump off receiving option with whom he already has a solid chemistry. It’s also likely that Indy go after a wide out and (to a lesser extent) a running back at some point in the draft, but skill positions only mean so much when you don’t have a player to snap the ball, or any other adequate blockers for that matter. Jeff Saturday’s ass must have been too painful a reminder of the future Hall of Famer who used to fondle it every Sunday, because no other explanation sufficiently justifies Indy’s decision to allow Peyton’s longtime center and the only bright spot of last year’s porous O-line to leave via free agency. Mike Pollak could have moved from guard to take over the position, but of course they allowed him to walk as well, leaving LT Anthony Castonzo (last year’s first round selection) as the only returning starter on the line. New GM Ryan Grigson, the 39-year-old Indy native who spent the last 8 years with the Eagles (most recently as Director of Player Personnel), acquired center Mike McGlynn (via free agency) and RT Winston Justice (via trade, swapping 6th round picks) from his former employer either to start or simply add much needed depth. Considering that McGlynn now occupies Peyton’s former locker, it would seem all but perverse that he not even start. I can’t say the same for Justice, but perhaps Grigson sees something in him that the rest of Philadelphia did not.
While the Colts offense will surely feature some new faces, their defense is set for a far more drastic makeover as new head coach Chuck Pagano switches to the 3-4 scheme he ran so successfully with Baltimore. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney (if he isn’t traded) will be the starting outside linebackers, while free agent acquisition Brandon McKinney will anchor their new-look defense as the starting nose tackle. Pagano also brought in DE Cory Redding and SS Tom Zbikowski from Baltimore to fill out some other defensive needs, but CB still remains a dire need that will surely be addressed at some point early on in the draft. To be honest, with so many needs across the board, all the Colts can really do is go after the best player available as he falls and do everything in their power to make things as easy as possible for Luck—at this point, compiling a 53 man roster by September would in itself be an accomplishment worth celebrating.
John Scott Recommends:
Surprise, surprise… Andrew Luck QB – Stanford
I refuse to jerk off Luck anymore than he has been over the past 12 months. I REFUSE.
John Scott's Sleeper pick:
RG III QB – Baylor
There is a chance. But most likely RG will be going to nation’s capital. I’ll just jump to the second round where Indy grabbing Luck’s teammate, TE Coby Fleener could be a great story and give Luck a much needed weapon.
###